We’ve all heard about the ‘curse of the Rumba’ or the ‘challenge of the Cha Cha Cha’ but are these really the dances that spell danger for couples in terms of landing in the bottom two and facing the dreaded dance-off? Which dances are more likely to end up in elimination from the competition? We’ve analysed the data to find out… one dance definitely tops the danger list but it might not be the one you expect.

The data

The bottom two dances for each week with a public vote have been counted and analysed up to and including the Quarter-Final dances of the current series (Series 20 Week 11). In addition, the resulting eliminations (in terms of dance performed) have been separately counted. Mostly these are dances that have been competed in a dance-off between the two bottom scoring couples, with the judges voting to ‘save’ one couple. However, for Series 1-4 and 8-9, there was no dance-off and elimination of one couple in the bottom two was based solely on lowest public vote received. For some series, couples were also eliminated in this way during Semi-Finals and Finals (Series 8-13) and where this occurred – as they had danced more than one dance before being eliminated – then all the dances performed that week by the departing couple are counted here as elimination dances. Where couples danced-off and were eliminated, it is only the repeated dance-off routine that counts as an elimination dance.

Series 5 differs as in the Semi-Final two couples (Matt & Flavia and Gethin & Camilla) had to dance off for a place in the Final – Matt and Flavia were saved so Gethin and Camilla’s Argentine Tango is counted as an elimination dance even though they were awarded 3rd place after it and were not ‘eliminated’ in the usual way.

Note: In total, data for 220 elimination dances has been included. The 16 main dances are included with a category of ‘Other’ which combines occasional dances such as Rock ‘n’ Roll, Lindy Hop or Fusion. This ‘Other’ category is included for completeness but not as part of the overall analysis as the number of dances in this group is so small.

Bottom Two and Elimination Dances in Numbers

This table shows the number of dances, bottom 2 and elimination routines for each dance.

Our infographic below shows this same data visually. What the stats reveal is that although dances with more appearances in the bottom two often unsurprisingly have higher number of eliminations, the correlation isn’t always straightforward.

• For dances in the bottom 2:
  Jive is top (44) and Samba is 2nd (43)
  Cha Cha Cha and Rumba are joint 3rd (38)
  Tango is 5th (21)
• However, in terms of numbers of eliminations:
  Samba is top (26),
  Tango and Cha Cha Cha are joint 2nd (21)
  American Smooth is 4th (18)
  However, Jive is 5th (17) and the famously cursed Rumba is actually 8th (14)
• Ballroom dances are definitely ‘safer’ than Latin routines; of the 5 most frequently appearing bottom two dances only Tango is a Ballroom dance and of the 5 most common elimination dances 3 are Latin, 1 is Ballroom (Tango again) and 1 is a Speciality dance (American Smooth)

% of each dance ending up in the Bottom 2

As the number of performances of each dance differ, we need to also consider the bottom two and elimination appearances as a percentage of the total danced; what percentage of each dance end up in the bottom two and what percentage result in elimination?

Our infographic shows the percentage of safe routines compared to bottom two routines for each dance type. This data shows that:

• Rumba has the highest percentage of routines ending in the bottom two (26.8% of all rumbas) but only just…it is very closely followed by Samba (26.4%) and Salsa (23.9%), so we’re definitely not convinced its especially cursed reputation is deserved
• Quickstep is the safest routine to perform with only 13.3% of Quicksteps ending up in the bottom two. (Note: we’re excluding Showdances from this as although couples can be eliminated after a Showdance they are only performed in Finals and so do not result in a bottom two placement)

% of each dance ending up in Elimination

The third chart shows the percentage of safe routines compared to elimination routines for each dance type and the results are interesting to compare.

• The top 3 danger dances in terms of elimination are:
  Samba (16% end in elimination)
  2nd is fan favourite the Charleston (11.8% end in elimination)
  3rd rather surprisingly is the American Smooth (11.4% end in elimination)
• Despite its high frequency in the bottom two, in percentage terms Rumba is 6th in terms of elimination danger (9.9% of Rumbas end in elimination), less than Tango and Argentine Tango
• Ballroom dances are safer – 6.7% of Quicksteps and 6.6% of both Waltzes and Viennese Waltzes end in exit.
• However the safest dance is Couple’s Choice with only 4.7% of these ending in elimination.

Elimination Percentages Overall

Our fourth and final chart shows each dance as a percentage of all eliminations and the results are pretty conclusive.

• The Samba – often described by the judges as a notoriously difficult dance – is the most dangerous dance to perform, accounting for 11.8% of all eliminations (the highest) though it is not the most performed dance
• Joint 2nd on the elimination leaderboard are the Tango and the Cha Cha Cha, which account for 9.5% of all eliminations each
• Fourth place goes to the American Smooth (8.2% of all eliminations), with the Jive finishing 5th, responsible for 7.7% of all eliminations
• Certain dances with frequent appearances in the bottom two – Salsa and Rumba – are perhaps less risky than they seem, as eliminations for these routines are lower (5% and 6.4% of all eliminations respectively)

With these findings in mind, it’s probably a good thing that no couples have got to dance a Samba in this weekend’s Semi-Final…no Cha Cha Chas, Tangos, Rumbas or Jives are making an appearance either. The potential ‘danger’ dances are the American Smooth (to be danced by Molly & Carlos) and the Charleston (to be danced by Fleur & Vito and Hamza & Jowita). However many other couples in Strictly history have proved both of these can also be very high scoring dances and we hope they can dance themselves out of the danger zone and on into the Final next week.