Ahead of the first live show of Series 21, we thought it would be interesting to look back at which dance styles have been performed the most and least regularly as a ‘first dance’ for celebrities on Strictly.

Have there been any styles performed in Week 1 which have led to a greater chance of eventual success for a celebrity, and if so, will these trends continue in 2023?

As with my previous posts, any dances scored by three judges have been converted into a score out of 40; so that fair comparisons can be made.

(Note: for Series 4-7, half the couples performed first in Week 1 and the other half in Week 2, so for these Series a ‘first dance’ can have been performed in either of the first two weeks.)

Big thank you to fellow “Strictly Statistician” James (Instagram: @drross365) for contributing this article to the StrictlyDB Blog.

American Smooth

• Routines performed: 6
• Winners: 0
• Other finalists: 1
• Highest score: 28 (S18: Caroline & Johannes)
• Lowest score: 21.3 (S18: Jason & Luba)
• 2023 Celebrities: None

The American Smooth was introduced to the show in Series Three, but only made its first appearance in Week 1 of Series Eighteen.

This is one of only two styles that has yet to receive a score in the thirties, and the only finalists who performed this dance were Helen & Gorka from Series Twenty (scoring 26).

Cha Cha Cha

• Routines performed: 97
• Winners: 10
• Other finalists: 16
• Highest score: 32 (S3: Colin & Erin; S9: Jason & Kristina)
• Lowest score: 8 (S2: Quentin & Hazel)
• 2023 Celebrities: Adam, Angela R, Annabel, Krishnan, Zara

With 97 routines in total, the Cha Cha Cha is the style which has been performed the most times in Week 1. Incredibly nine of the first thirteen winners of Strictly started by performing the Cha Cha Cha; and with 26 finalists in total, this style has more than double the amount of finalists than any of the others.

Here is one of my favourite ever Week 1 routines; a Cha Cha Cha from Danny Mac and Oti, receiving an under-marked 31.

Foxtrot

• Routines performed: 11
• Winners: 1
• Other finalists: 0
• Highest score: 34 (S20: Hamza & Jowita)
• Lowest score: 17 (S17: David & Nadiya)
• 2023 Celebrities: Bobby

The Foxtrot is arguably the toughest ballroom dance to master, and has only been performed eleven times as a first dance. Cherie Lunghi (with James) and Aston Merrygold (with Janette) topped the leaderboard when dancing this style, before both going on to suffer a shock mid series elimination.

Series Twenty champion Hamza (with Jowita) broke the Foxtrot curse, becoming the first person starting with this style to go on to reach the quarter-finals.

Jive

• Routines performed: 22
• Winners: 2
• Other finalists: 9
• Highest score: 34 (S19: AJ & Kai; S20: Will & Nancy)
• Lowest score: 18 (S12: Jennifer & Tristan; S16: Vick & Graziano)
• 2023 Celebrities: Ellie

As we saw from Ellie Leach’s reaction to learning she had the Jive in Week 1, this high energy style is a tough assignment. It is however, often a predictor of success, with half of the 22 partnerships starting with the Jive going on to reach the final.

There have been a handful of other near misses as well, with Semi-Final eliminees Patrick Robinson (with Anya), Mollie King (with AJ) and Will Mellor (with Nancy) all also starting with the Jive.

Here is Georgia May Foote’s 27 scoring routine from 2015, which was also Giovanni’s first ever dance on Strictly.

Paso Doble

• Routines performed: 4
• Winners: 0
• Other finalists: 1
• Highest score: 30 (S15: Debbie & Giovanni)
• Lowest score: 17 (S15: Simon & Karen)
• 2023 Celebrities: Nigel

The Paso Doble made it’s initial appearance as a Week 1 dance, in Series Fourteen with a routine performed by Tameka Empson and Strictly’s first Spanish pro dancer, Gorka.

The most successful partnership to start off with the Paso was undoubtedly Debbie McGee and Giovanni in 2017.

Quickstep

• Routines performed: 15
• Winners: 1
• Other finalists: 0
• Highest score: 33 (S4: Emma & Darren; S5: Penny & Ian)
• Lowest score: 15 (S5: Kate & Anton)
• 2023 Celebrities: Jody, Eddie

The Quickstep was introduced as a first dance in Series Four (Week 2); but after the following series did not return again as a first dance until Series Sixteen.

The only celebrity who went on to reach the final after starting with the Quickstep was Series Sixteen champion Stacey Dooley (with Kevin). Here is their first dance which received a score of 24 in 2018.

Rumba

• Routines performed: 6
• Winners: 1
• Other finalists: 0
• Highest score: 33 (S5: Kelly & Brendan)
• Lowest score: 14 (S4: Georgina & James)
• 2023 Celebrities: None

Six female celebrities over the course of Series Four and Five were given the unenviable task of starting their campaign with the Rumba. Since then, the Rumba has disappeared from the Week 1 schedules, perhaps never to return.

Here is Kelly Brook’s 2007 routine with Brendan Cole, which is one of only four Latin ‘first dances’ to receive a score of nine from a judge.

Salsa

• Routines performed: 4
• Winners: 0
• Other finalists: 2
• Highest score: 31 (S6: Rachel & Vincent)
• Lowest score: 20 (S6: Jessie & Darren)
• 2023 Celebrities: None

The Salsa has only been used as an opener in Series Six; and along with the American Smooth, these are the only two ‘Speciality’ styles performed as a first dance on Strictly.

The only one of the four routines to receive a score higher than 26 was this effort from Series Six runner-up Rachel Stevens (with Vincent) in 2008.

Samba

• Routines performed: 8
• Winners: 1
• Other finalists: 2
• Highest score: 32 (S17: Kelvin & Oti; S18: Maisie & Gorka)
• Lowest score: 12 (S16: Susannah & Anton)
• 2023 Celebrities: Layton

The Samba is another Week 1 dance style not for the faint-hearted! To date, Oti has performed three of the eight Week 1 Samba routines (with Graeme Swann, Ugo Monye, and of course, Kelvin Fletcher).

Will Layton and Nikita be able to match, or beat, the high first score of 32 for this style? As a comparison, here is Maisie & Gorka’s 2018 routine.

Tango

• Routines performed: 28
• Winners: 2
• Other finalists: 2
• Highest score: 30 (S7: Laila & Anton; S14: Will & Karen; S19: John & Johannes)
• Lowest score: 11 (S17: James & Luba)
• 2023 Celebrities: Angela S, Les

I thought the Tango would have been one of the better dance choices for celebrities to perform in Week 1, but only six of the 28 celebrities who performed this went on to reach the quarter-final stage. It also turns out to be the style which has the lowest average score for a first dance at a meagre 22.5 points.

Here is Series 14 winner Ore Oduba performing the Tango with Joanne Clifton in 2016, earning a score of 27.

Viennese Waltz

• Routines performed: 4
• Winners: 0
• Other finalists: 1
• Highest score: 29 (S16: Ashley & Pasha)
• Lowest score: 20 (S15: Susan & Kevin; S17: Catherine & Johannes)
• 2023 Celebrities: Amanda

For a style considered one of the easiest to learn, it is surprising that only four celebrities have started Week 1 with a Viennese Waltz. The best score, and best finishing position, goes to Ashley Roberts & Pasha in 2018.

Waltz

• Routines performed: 74
• Winners: 2
• Other finalists: 10
• Highest score: 35 (S3: Zoe & Ian)
• Lowest score: 11 (S3: Fiona & Brendan)
• 2023 Celebrities: Nikita

The Waltz is the second most commonly performed style performed as a first dance, but has a success rate much lower than the Cha Cha Cha. This is particularly true for male celebrities, with only one out of 33 (Ricky Whittle) making the final.

What better way to close this article than by looking at the highest ever score received in Week 1; a Waltz from 2005 by Zoe Ball & Ian awarded 35 points. If we see this matched, or beaten, tonight, we will have seen something very special!