What couples – dancing which routines – will triumph at Strictly’s Semi-Final? Will it be a Charleston of Champions from Layton & Nikita, or a Crowd-Pleasing Couple’s Choice from Ellie & Vito that tops the Leaderboard? Could Bobby & Dianne seize the top spot with a Quintessential Quickstep or might Annabel & Johannes surprise us all (and possibly themselves) with a victorious virtuoso Viennese Waltz?

Forget Claudia’s dance debrief, in this post we scrutinise all of this year’s Semi-Final routines in a StrictlyDB dance pre-brief.  Let’s jump in…

Semi-Final Routines

In contrast to last Series, this year’s Semi-Final will see eight different dance styles performed, which we think can only be a good thing. Some styles have made frequent Semi-Final appearances in the show over the years, whilst others are relative newcomers but we think that each style has its own distinctive personality as well as potential advantages and disadvantages.

Before we dive into our dance-by-dance pre-brief, let’s look at how many times each style has been performed in the penultimate week and the average Semi-Final scores achieved by each.

Paso is the most danced routine (15), and secured this spot thanks to the three Paso Dobles that were performed in last year’s Semi-Final and it has the fourth highest average score of 35.1. Viennese Waltz and Rumba are joint second with 13 routines each, though the average Rumba score (31.5) is over 3 points below the average for the Viennese Waltz (34.6). In joint third place are the two Speciality dances of Charleston and Salsa, which have been danced 11 times each with – unsurprisingly – a higher average score for Charlestons (36.4) than for Salsas (34.2).

The Cha Cha Cha is mostly danced earlier on in a Series – and comes with some jeopardy for couples at the later stages of the competition as Angela & Carlos recently discovered; hence – like the relative newcomer that is Couple’s Choice – it has only appeared 3 times. Averages are less useful where numbers are so small, however the almost 8-point difference in the Semi-Final scores for these two styles (31.3 for Cha Cha Cha versus 39 for Couple’s Choice) might help to explain the decision to balance Ellie & Vito’s luck at performing the very (but not always!) safe Couple’s Choice style with the significantly steeper Cha Cha challenge they’re facing.

Dance by Dance Pre-brief

The ‘Challenging’ Cha Cha Cha (Ellie & Vito)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: None
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 1 out of 3
  (Jake & Janette, Series 12; lost in dance-off to Mark & Karen)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 24% of all Cha Cha Chas land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 13% of all Cha Cha Chas result in Elimination

Verdict: Only 3 Semi-Final Cha Cha Chas have been performed but the riskiness of the dance is well established by its stats, which show it to be the joint highest of the 8 dance styles here in terms of Bottom 2 placements (with the Rumba) and joint highest for Eliminations (together with the Charleston). It also has the lowest average Semi-Final score (31.3) of all 8 styles.

Ellie & Vito are widely viewed as favourites to lift the Glitterball this year, and we hope they will more than rise to the challenge of this dance – but they may be helped by the fact that their other dance is a Couple’s Choice which has by far the lowest elimination rate of all dance styles here. Tricky to call – possibly a maybe.

Here is Georgia & Giovanni’s 2015 Semi-Final Cha Cha Cha, which at 33 is currently the highest-scoring of the 3 danced to date. Will Ellie & Vito improve on this score? We reckon so.

The Champions’ Charleston (Layton & Nikita)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: 5
  (Harry & Aliona – 39; Jay & Aliona – 37; Stacey & Kevin – 39; Bill & Oti – 25/30; Hamza & Jowita – 39)
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 2 out of 11
  (Scott & Natalie, Series 8; Holly & Artem, Series 9: both eliminated by public vote after dancing a Charleston and an Argentine Tango)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 18% of all Charlestons land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 13% of all Charlestons result in Elimination

Verdict: In the hands (and feet) of less skilled dancers, the Charleston is definitely a risky routine and is the joint highest (with the Cha Cha Cha) in terms of its overall elimination stats (13%). However, in this set it really does seem to be the Champions’ choice as it has been performed in a Semi-Final by 5 previous winners, more than any of the others.

We all know what Layton & Nikita can do on the dancefloor, so we are expecting nothing less than a showstopping hit. That said, we are less certain that they will be the 6th Winners to have been fortunate enough to perform this popular routine in their Semi-Final.

Here is Stacey & Kevin’s 2018 Semi-Final Charleston, which scored 39 points and saw them safely through to the Final and Glitterball glory.

The ‘It Could Go Either Way’ Couple’s Choice (Ellie & Vito)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: None 
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 1 out of 3
  (Will & Nancy, Series 20; lost to Fleur & Vito in the dance-off)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 13% of all Couple’s Choice land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 3% of all Couple’s Choice result in Elimination

Verdict: Will & Nancy’s elimination last year after their Couple’s Choice routine is a reminder that this style is not always a safe one, but it is the least risky of this set and has the highest average score (39). We think Ellie & Vito deserve a helping hand to counterbalance the risks of the Cha Cha Cha. Don’t forget either Fleur & Vito’s groundbreaking Destiny’s Child Couple’s Choice from 2022 which was a double 40-scoring dance, showing Vito has great form with this genre. We’re hoping for a hit!

To get us in the mood, here is John & Johannes Semi-Final Couple’s Choice from 2019 which scored 39 and took them to the Final.

The Persuasive Paso Doble (Bobby & Dianne)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: 3
  (Natasha & Brendan – 35; Jill & Darren – 37; Kelvin & Oti – 37)
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 1 out of 15
  (Aled & Lilia, Series 2; via public vote after dancing a Paso and Tango)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 19% of all Paso Dobles land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 7% of all Paso Dobles result in Elimination

Verdict: The Paso is definitely a dance that seems to win audiences (and judges) over; though it is the most performed Semi-Final dance here, it has only ever resulted in one elimination and that was all the way back in Series 2.

Overall, though around one fifth of Pasos land in the Bottom 2, only 7% end up in elimination (which is only higher than Couple’s Choice and Viennese Waltz) and 3 winners have danced it in their Semis. This is all great news for Bobby but we wonder if the Spanish lines and strong body shapes may be a challenge. Could be a maybe.

Here is Champion Kelvin & Oti’s 2017 Semi-Final Paso Doble, which Motsi awarded a 10.

The (Hopefully) Quintessential Quickstep (Bobby & Dianne)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: 3
  (Alesha & Matthew – 38; Ore & Joanne – 38; Kelvin & Oti – 40)
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 2 out of 10
  (Lesley & Anton, Series 1; via public vote after Quickstep & Jive; Claudia & AJ, Series 14; lost in dance-off to Danny & Oti)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 15% of all Quicksteps land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 8% of all Quicksteps result in Elimination

Verdict: Bobby & Dianne have the same combination of dances as Kelvin & Oti, so it has been a winning formula for past Champions and there have been some classic Quicksteps danced in past Semi-Finals. Indeed it has more past perfect scores than any other style here; Lisa & Brendan, Pamela & James, Kelvin & Oti and AJ & Kai all scored 40 for this dance in their Semi-Final. Wishing for a quality Quickstep from Bobby is one thing, however, the lower overall standard for ballroom routines this year (with no scores yet over 36) suggests caution and so for us it’s a maybe.

Here is AJ & Kai’s leaderboard-topping dance from Series 19, a quintessentially perfect Quickstep for sure.

The Risky Rumba (Layton & Nikita)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: 2
  (Chris & Ola – 38/50 or 30; Kara & Artem – 39)
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 2 out of 13
  (James & Camilla, Series 3; via public vote after Rumba & Foxtrot; Chris & Karen, Series 17; lost in dance-off to Karim & Amy)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 24% of all Rumbas land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 11% of all Rumbas result in Elimination

Verdict: The joint highest dance style here in terms of Bottom 2 placements (24%) and only trailing behind the Cha Cha Cha and Charleston in terms of eliminations (13% versus 11%), the Rumba is always a tough draw and remains the only dance style yet to earn a perfect score. It also has the second lowest average score (31.5) of these 8 Semi-Final dances; lucky then for Layton & Nikita that this has been paired with the ‘Champions’ Charleston’.

With Rihanna’s ‘Lift Me Up’ from ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’, an emotional performance seems guaranteed and with Layton’s skill we are wondering if this dance could provide a genuinely brilliant Strictly moment. Rumba stats may suggest danger but we’re thinking hit.

Just two Semi-Final Rumbas have scored 39 points; one was AJ & Kai’s in 2019, and the other was this one by Kara & Artem from 2010.

The Showy Salsa (Annabel & Johannes)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: 1
  (Caroline & Pasha – 40)
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 3 out of 11
  (Emma & Darren, Series 4 and Alex & James, Series 9; via public vote after dancing a Salsa and one other dance; Anita & Gleb, Series 13)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 22% of all Salsas land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 10% of all Salsas result in Elimination

Verdict: The Salsa is a hard dance nut to crack and the flamboyance of its intricate lifts and tricks is challenging; it is second here in terms of overall Bottom 2 placements (22%) and fourth riskiest for elimination (10%).

Annabel has shown she can bring the party spirit with her Samba, but the showy Salsa may be more out of her comfort zone. Add to this the fact that previous Salsas to this track – Gloria Estefan’s ‘You’ll Be Mine (Party Time)’ – have not scored highly (Fern & Artem 27, Natalie & Vincent 29) and we think this may be a miss (but Annabel has proved us wrong before!)

Here is Natalie & Artem’s 40-scoring Salsa from 2013 to show us all how it’s done.

The Victorious Viennese Waltz (Annabel & Johannes)

• Winners who danced this style in their Semi-Final: 4
  (Kara & Artem – 39; Harry & Aliona – 39; Jay & Aliona – 34; Stacey & Kevin – 36)
• Semi-Final eliminations for this style: 1 out of 13
  (Gavin & Katya, Series 8; via public vote after dancing a Viennese Waltz and a Samba)
• Overall Bottom 2 Stats: 14% of all Viennese Waltzes land in the Bottom 2
• Overall Elimination Stats: 5% of all Viennese Waltzes result in Elimination

Verdict: The Viennese Waltz feels like the ‘sleeper hit’ of these 8 Semi-Final routines; whilst it has neither the highest average score (34.6) nor any perfect-scoring Semi-Final performances to date (there have been four 39s but no 40s) , it has been danced by 4 previous winners in their Semi-Finals and is the safest dance to perform with the exception only of Couple’s Choice.

This definitely has the potential to be a performance of grace and beauty from Annabel & Johannes, and the intriguing music choice of ‘Please, Please, Please Let Me Get What I Want’ (from the John Lewis Christmas advert – originally a song by ‘The Smiths’) could elevate it to something unique. If you never thought you would hear a Smiths song on Strictly, think again. If you didn’t believe Annabel could make the Final, maybe think again. She’s an outside choice but we’ve got everything crossed for a hit.

Here to enjoy is Maisie & Gorka’s Viennese Waltz from the 2020 Semi-Final, which scored 29 (out of 30) points.