First routines on Strictly have ranged from the sublime (Zoe Ball & Ian scoring 35 in Series 3) to the ridiculous (Quentin Wilson & Hazel scoring 8 in Series 2).

In this week’s blog, we crunch the numbers to see which specific scores for a ‘first routine’ have most often been the precursor to an eventual place in the Final.

Note:

• Outcomes of a first week score have only been analysed if five or more partnerships received that total for their ‘first routine’
• Week 1 scores for Series 18 (with only three judges) have been recalculated by dividing the totals by three, multiplying them by four; and then rounding those scores to the nearest whole number to make the comparison possible
• Between 2006 and 2009, half the couples danced in Week 1 and the other half danced in Week 2, so a ‘first routine’ then could be performed in Week 2

10th: 24 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 14%
• Number of routines: 21
• Number of winners: One (Stacey Dooley)
• Number of other finalists: Two (Mark Wright, Alexandra Burke)

Stacey & Kevin’s Quickstep from Series 16, is one of only six ‘first routines’ that received a score of ‘six’ from all four judges.

9th: 26 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 23%
• Number of routines: 13
• Number of winners: One (Chris Hollins)
• Number of other finalists: Two (Katie Derham, Helen Skelton)

Only once has a partnership received scores of ‘five’, ‘six’, ‘seven’ and ‘eight’ for a ‘first routine’ (and sadly it wasn’t Faye Tozer & Giovanni!) This unique combination was awarded to Heather Small & Brian, in Series 6.

8th: 28 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 26%
• Number of routines: 19
• Number of winners: Two (Tom Chambers, Harry Judd)
• Number of other finalists: Three (Kimberley Walsh, Susanna Reid, Sophie Ellis-Bextor)

There have been seven ‘first routines’ which scored a ‘seven’ from all four judges, one of which is this Waltz from Sophie Ellis-Bextor & Brendan, from Series 11.

7th: 19 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 29%
• Number of routines: 17
• Number of winners: One (Darren Gough)
• Number of other finalists: Four (Christopher Parker, Julian Clary, Matt Dawson, Jamie Laing)

‘Nineteen’ is the lowest total received by any Strictly finalist for their ‘first routine’; and four of the five finalists to receive that score took part in the first four Series of Strictly.

Matt Dawson & Lilia (Series 4) are the only partnership to receive a ‘two’ from Craig for their ‘first routine’ before subsequently making the Final.

6th: 30 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 31%
• Number of routines: 13
• Number of winners: One (Kara Tointon)
• Number of other finalists: Three (Frankie Bridge, Debbie McGee, John Whaite)

All thirteen of these routines received a ‘seven’ from two judges, and an ‘eight’ from the other two judges. There have been four occasions in which Craig was one of the judges to award an ‘eight’, including this Paso Doble from Debbie McGee & Giovanni from Series 15.

5th: 33 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 33%
• Number of routines: 6
• Number of winners: None
• Number of other finalists: Two (Ricky Whittle, HRVY)

There have only been twelve ‘first routines’ which have ever received a ‘nine’ from one, or more, of the judges. Six of these scored 33 points, including this Jive from HRVY & Janette (adjusted), from Series 18, which Motsi awarded a 9.

4th: 27 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 44%
• Number of routines: 27
• Number of winners: Seven (Natasha Kaplinsky, Jill Halfpenny, Mark Ramprakash, Louis Smith, Caroline Flack, Jay McGuiness, Ore Oduba)
• Number of other finalists: Five (Chelsee Healey, Simon Webbe, Georgia May Foote, Kellie Bright, Joe Sugg)

Not only is ‘27’ the most common ‘first routine’ score, but it is also the score achieved by the highest number of finalists (12) and the highest number of winners (7).

The most recent ‘first routine’ to receive this score was this Viennese Waltz from Rhys Stephenson & Nancy from Series 19.

3rd place: 29 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 47%
• Number of routines: 15
• Number of winners: Two (Joe McFadden, Ellie Leach)
• Number of other finalists: Five (Faye Tozer, Ashley Roberts, Fleur East, Bobby Brazier, Layton Williams)

All three finalists from Series 21 received a score of ‘29’ in Week 1. This is clearly a lucky number for Vito, as he also earned this total in his first performance with Fleur East. Can he make it a hat-trick this year with Sarah Hadland?

2nd place: 32 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 63%
• Number of routines: 8
• Number of winners: Two (Abbey Clancy, Kelvin Fletcher)
• Number of other finalists: Three (Colin Jackson, Jason Donovan, Maisie Smith)

There have been just six‘first routines’ that received an ‘eight’ from every judge. One of which is the incredible Samba from Series 17 Champions Kelvin Fletcher & Oti.

1st place: 31 points for a ‘first routine’

• Percentage of routines that led to a finalist: 91%
• Number of routines: 11
• Number of winners: One (Alesha Dixon)
• Number of other finalists: Nine (Denise Lewis, Rachel Stevens, Matt Baker, Pamela Stephenson, Natalie Gumede, Louise Redknapp, Danny Mac, Karim Zeroual, Molly Rainford)

The first score which has been most likely to lead to a place in the Final is ‘31’. Ten of the eleven partnerships to receive this score went on to reach the Strictly Final, with Aston Merrygold & Janette, in Series 15, being the only partnership to miss out.