All of us at StrictlyDB are eagerly awaiting the first Strictly live show of the series. Hopefully we will be entertained, see some great dancing, and maybe even be treated to a ‘dance disaster’ or two!

We’ll be making predictions about who’ll pick up the glitterball in December in our next podcast but in this week’s blog I take a look at whether a contestant’s first performance can determine where they will finish. Is it necessarily the case that higher scores lead to an increased chance of overall success?

As usual, the scores from the three judge series of 2020 have been recalculated into equivalent scores out of 40; so, for example, a contestant who scored 15/30, will be counted as having scored 20.

First dance score: 15 (or lower)

• • 14 Contestants
  • 0%: Chance of winning
  • 7%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
  • 21%: Chances of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Comedian, Chris Ramsey scored 13 points for his first routine in Series 17; and out of all of the contestants who have received a score of 18 points or less, Chris is the only one to achieve a ‘top four’ finish.

First dance score: 16

• 11 Contestants
• 0%: Chance of winning
• 0%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 18%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Of the eleven contestants who scored 16, Olympic gold medal winning cyclist, Victoria Pendleton lasted the longest; making it all the way to week 8 of Series 10.

First dance score: 17

• 16 Contestants
• 0%: Chance of winning
• 0%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 25%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

17 is a score that Karen Hauer has received with three of her previous dance partners (Nicky Byrne, Simon Rimmer & Paul Merson).The contestant who achieved the best result after receiving this score was Pete Wicks (from Series 22), who reached the Semi-final.

First dance score: 18

• 13 Contestants
• 0%: Chance of winning
• 0%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 8%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Tennis coach, Judy Murray had the most success from this group, making it to Week 8 of Series 12.

First dance score: 19

• 18 Contestants
• 6%: Chance of winning
• 28%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 44%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Peculiarly, fifteen of the eighteen contestants who received a score of 19 for their first routine, performed the Cha Cha Cha. This group includes Series 3 champion, cricketer Darren Gough. Out of the five finalists who scored 19, all appeared in the first four Series of Strictly, with the exception of Jamie Laing from Series 18.

First dance score: 20

• 18 Contestants
• 6%: Chance of winning
• 11%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 39%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

20 is a score received by only two previous Strictly finalists; Series 15 runner-up, Gemma Atkinson, and Series 18 champion Bill Bailey.

First dance score: 21

• 19 Contestants
• 0%: Chance of winning
• 5%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 58%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

This is the first score on our countdown that has seen more than half of its contestants ending the series with a ‘top eight’ finish. However, the only finalist who received a score of 21 was actress Dani Harmer, from Series 10.

First dance score: 22

• 24 Contestants
• 4%: Chance of winning
• 17%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 46%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

A score of 22 is the second most common score awarded for a first routine on Strictly. This was also the score received by Series 6 finalist, Lisa Snowdon and Series 19 champion Rose Ayling-Ellis.

First dance score: 23

• 19 Contestants
• 5%: Chance of winning
• 21%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 47%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

An opening score of 23 was earned by two ‘EastEnder’ finalists (Matt Di Angelo & Emma Barton) and was also the first score received by our reigning champion, Chris McCausland.

Keep an eye out for Part 2 of this blog, where we look at the success of contestants who scored 24 or higher for their first routine.