The countdown to Saturday night’s live show is underway and the StrictlyDB team have already made predictions as to who will pick up the Glitterball this year based mainly on a 3-minute group dance at the launch show 😉

In this blog we continue to look at whether a contestant’s first performance determines their finish.  Is it the case that higher scores lead to an increased chance of success, and why might it be especially interesting if any contestants score 27 this Saturday night?

In case you missed it, Part 1 is here (looking at contestants who scored 23 or less for their first routine).

As usual, the scores from the 3 judge series in 2020 have been recalculated into equivalent scores out of 40; so, for example, a contestant who scored 15/30, will be counted as having scored 20 here.

First dance score: 24

• 21 Contestants
• 5%: Chance of winning
• 14%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 43%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

This total is the third most common score for a first routine; however, it’s now been four years since it last occurred on Strictly. The three previous finalists who received a score of 24 were Mark Wright, Alexandra Burke, and Series 16 champion, Stacey Dooley.

First dance score: 25

• 15 Contestants
• 0%: Chance of winning
• 13%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 80%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Contestants receiving this score can expect a reasonable outcome, with 12 of the previous 15 going on to achieve a ‘top eight’ finish. However, only one of these contestants made it as far as the Final; Series 10 runner-up, Denise van Outen.

First dance score: 26

• 15 Contestants
• 7%: Chance of winning
• 27%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 53%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Ola Jordan received a score of 26 with three of her dance partners on Strictly; including Series 7 champion, Chris Hollins

First dance score: 27

• 27 Contestants
• 26%: Chance of winning
• 48%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 81%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Not only is 27 the most common score to be awarded for a first routine, it is also, by far, the most common first score for a Strictly champion. A magnificent seven previous winners of the Glitterball began their campaign with a score of 27; the most recent of these was Series 14 champion, Ore Oduba.

First dance score: 28

• 19 Contestants
• 11%: Chance of winning
• 42%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 89%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Brendan Cole and Johannes Radebe have both scored 28 with three of their dance partners. Two previous Strictly champions who received this score are Tom Chambers from Series 6, and Harry Judd from Series 9.

First dance score: 29

• 15 Contestants
• 13%: Chance of winning
• 67%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 87%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Seven of the last eight contestants who received a score of 29 went on to reach the final; this group includes Series 15 champion Joe McFadden, and Series 21 champion, Ellie Leach.

First dance score: 30

• 15 Contestants
• 7%: Chance of winning
• 53%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 73%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Only one of the five male celebrities who started off with a score of 30 remained in the competition at the Quarter-final stage (Series 19 runner-up, John Whaite). In contrast, seven of the ten female celebrities with this score achieved a ‘top four’ finish; including Series 8 champion, Kara Tointon.

First dance score: 31

• 12 Contestants
• 8%: Chance of winning
• 92%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 92%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

Eleven of the twelve contestants who received a score of 31 went on to reach the final (the one exception being Aston Merrygold); however, of these eleven, only Alesha Dixon went on to win the Glitterball.

First dance score: 32 (or higher)

• 18 Contestants
• 17%: Chance of winning
• 67%: Chance of reaching the final (‘top 4’ finish)
• 94%: Chance of reaching Blackpool (‘top 8’ finish)

It’s quite rare to see a first dance scoring this highly, and indeed fewer celebrities have managed this than have won the Glitterball (18, compared to 22). The three contestants who have managed to achieve both are Abbey Clancy (Series 11), ‘super-sub’ Kelvin Fletcher (Series 17), and Hamza Yassin (Series 20).

So, in summary…

• Any contestant who receives a first score of 18 or lower, has less than a 10% chance of reaching Blackpool. This percentage rises to nearly 90% to any contestant who scores 28 or higher.
• The scores which are most likely to lead to a place in the final are 27 (thirteen previous ‘top four’ finishes), 31 (eleven), and 29 (ten).
• The first score which is most likely to lead to Glitterball success is 27; a score achieved by 7 Strictly champions (Natasha, Jill, Mark, Louis, Caroline, Jay & Ore). No other total has produced more than two champions.