It’s nearly time for Week 1 and the hot topic of debate here at StrictlyDB is our first Strictly leaderboard of the season. More specifically, who is destined to shimmy to the top and who will stumble to the bottom with a flop. So for a bit of fun we thought we’d share our thoughts.

Currently there’s a ‘core four’ of us in the team here at Strictly DB. Uber fan Liv who had had the idea for the website and started it all, our Strictly Statistician James who is an absolute expert on performance scores and trends, Matt who designed the website and loves to watch the dances, and Steve, our developer, who made the site function so brilliantly, and to date, has never seen a single episode of the show!

So with our varying levels of Strictly expertise – ‘from Pro to never seen a show’ – we give you our predictions…

Heading to the top?

James

In recent years, the celebrity who topped the leaderboard in Week 1 received a score in the low thirties. Since Shirley became head judge in 2017, there have been ten routines that received a score of 31 or higher

s15: Aston, Foxtrot, 31
s17, Kelvin, Samba, 32
s17, Karim, Cha Cha, 31
s18, HRVY, Jive, 33.3 (25/30)
s18, Maisie, Samba, 32 (24/30)
s19, AJ, Jive, 34
s20: Hamza, Foxtrot, 34
s20: Will, Jive, 34
s20: Molly, Samba, 31
s21: Nigel, Paso, 32

Seven of the ten routines were performed by male celebrities, and eight of the ten routines were Latin styles.

Another thing to keep an eye on is the running order.  In eight of the last ten Series, a routine that was performed last, or next to last in Week 1, ended up receiving the highest score.

Top of the leaderboard prediction: Shayne & Nancy’s Samba

Liv

It’s going to be a heart versus head dilemma making these predictions for sure. In my head I
think a male celebrity is more likely to top in the first week – and there are two with winning
Strictly experience already (JB Gill and Jamie Borthwick – both have won at Christmas before) which I think will help with first night nerves. They’re also dancing ballroom routines which I love but I am backing Sarah to outshine them both, and Sarah & Vito to go top, with their 9-to-5 Quickstep.

As a combo, it’s not got great first week form (scoring 25 points when danced by Carol Smilie &
Matthew back in 2006 – though a generous 7 from Craig) but it’s a great track and Sarah apparently started her dance training aged 3!

Top of the leaderboard prediction: Sarah & Vito’s Quickstep

Matt

So tricky to call but I’ve got a feeling Sam Quek is going to shine. I can see her being the surprise sporting star of the show. Hockey needs brilliant balance to play at the top level – so I think she’ll be nimble and quick on her feet and her spatial awareness will be superb.

I look forward to seeing Sam flow gracefully through that Foxtrot!

Top of the leaderboard prediction: Sam & Nikita’s Foxtrot

Steve

I’ve had a look and I’ve no idea. I think for the top team I’m going to have to go with either experience (done it before) or some connection with dancing (actors, singers). I’ll probably stick with actors for the moment as they often do dance classes at theatre school. I think. Don’t they?

Sports people could be good at dancing but you’ve got to draw the line somewhere – I don’t think Paul Merson is in the peak of his sporting prowess and I doubt Vindaloo is going to alter that.

Let’s go with the mechanic – they’re good with their hands… Eastenders is a documentary right?

Top of the leaderboard prediction: Jamie & Michelle’s Viennese Waltz

Likely to flop?

Ahhhh we hate to say it, and as much as we’d love everyone to be a ballroom star, there’s always those who struggle. Understandably so. So who might we find sliding towards the lonely depths of the bottom of Leaderboard? Who could flop?

James

Since Shirley became head judge in 2017, only eight routines have received a score of 16 or
lower

s15: Brian, Tango, 16
s15: Ruth, Waltz, 16
s16: Susannah, Samba, 12
s17: James, Tango, 11

s17: Chris, Cha Cha, 13
s17: Anneka, Cha Cha, 14
s20: Tony, Tango, 15
s21: Les, Tango, 16

Apart from Chris Ramsay, all of the other celebrities were aged 45 or older.  Four of the eight routines were male Tangos, but the only male Tango this year will be performed by 24-year-old Tom.

I think last place is likely to be a close battle between Nick & Paul.  Will Nick receive a small boost to his score from the judges due it being his birthday on Saturday?!

Bottom of the leaderboard prediction: Paul & Karen’s American Smooth

Liv

Bottom is even more of a dilemma, and I prefer to talk about who’ll do well than who won’t.

Definitely in danger I think are Nick & Luba with a tricky Jive, Paul & Karen with a weird American Smooth and Wynne & Katya with a Samba to ‘Help Yourself’ – the exact combination which saw Jacqui Smith eliminated first with Anton in Week 2 of Series 18.

Nick’s kicks and flicks looked dubious in the BBC’s official trailer – and for that reason only I’m going with them to flop.

Bottom of the leaderboard prediction: Nick & Luba’s Jive

Matt

Wynne and a Samba… ahhh I just can’t see it. I know bigger guys can dance – Hamza was superb – but the Samba is soooo hard.

Really tough week 1 selection for Wynne and I just don’t think he’ll be able to deliver this early. Having said that, we know what a great teacher Katya is…. Mmmhhh…

No… sorry Wynne, but I’m predicting a loss on this one.

Bottom of the leaderboard prediction: Wynne & Katya’s Samba

Steve

I just can’t see Paul delivering on the dancefloor. I don’t remember him being good with his feet when he played and I think Vindaloo will do them over anyway – terrible song choice.

Bottom of the leaderboard prediction: Paul and Karen’s Amercian Smooth

How about you?

Well there it is folks – our Week 1 leaderboard predictions. But what about you?

Who do you think is heading to the top, and who is likely to be a flop?

Play along in the comments below if you fancy it and enjoy the show tonight. We’re sure you will!