No podcast this week folks as personal commitments meant half of the team weren’t around to record it.  But we plan to be back next week (Semi-finals – exciting!).

But fear not – through the power of such modern wizardry known as “electronic mail” (it’ll never catch on) – we have managed to collect our reflections and predictions in a blog – so here they are….

Team ‘Two stars and a wish’

In team two stars and a wish we get the chance to award two stars for things we liked about last week’s show – week 10.

We are also granted one wish from the ‘Strictly Genie’ to use however we so desire, as long as it’s focused on improving our future enjoyment of the show.

Our first star of the week is awarded by James (and wholeheartedly supported by the rest of the team). It is for Aljaž who received his first perfect score on Strictly in eleven years; with his previous ‘40’ coming in the 2013 final, when dancing a Waltz with Abbey Clancy.

This is the longest gap that a pro dancer has had to wait between receiving two perfect scores. The previous record was held by Flavia who had to wait five years between her first 40 (a Waltz in the 2007 semi-final with Matt Di Angelo) and her second (a Show dance in the 2012 final with Louis Smith).

Well done Aljaž!

Our second star of the week is awarded by Liv and is for Michelle (and again hugely supported by the rest of the team). What an opening season Michelle – you have been brilliant with Jamie and us fans have really warmed to you. Great coaching and choreography (we personally loved last week’s Foxtrot – simple, stylish, classy and classic!). As pointed out by the brilliant Fred at StrictlyFM, Michelle is the fourth Pro debutant to make it to week 10 following in the footsteps of Karen, Katya and Nikita. This suggests great things will follow and we look forward to you (hopefully) getting another celebrity next Series.

Well done Michelle!

The Strictly Genie decided to grace James and grant him the power of a wish this week. James’s wish is that each partnership would get to perform twice in the quarter-finals, rather than just once.

This is for two main reasons. Firstly, the quarter-final show feels incredibly short; with this Saturday’s show scheduled for just 1 hour, 10 minutes. Was it really only a couple of months ago when the live shows would last for two and a half hours?

Secondly, the introduction of the Couple’s Choice now means that Strictly finalists get to skip two dance styles in their series, rather than just one. This allows certain pro dancers to seemingly ‘avoid’ certain dance styles. For example, despite performing in 42 routines, we are yet to see Vito dance the Tango; and in her 66 routines on the show, Dianne has never danced the Rumba!

Thank you James. Another brilliant constructive suggestion that I’m sure lots of us fans would support! James for Strictly President! 😉

Predictions Game

In our predictions game we look to the week ahead – Quarter Finals week – and try to predict who will be top and bottom of the Leaderboard on Saturday and who will go home on Sunday.

Top

Last week Tasha’s American Smooth ended up being the 13th instance of a routine receiving a perfect score before reaching the quarter finals stage.

Perhaps surprisingly, only four of the previous twelve occurrences saw the celebrity who received the perfect score head the leaderboard in the following week; so, I will not be picking Tasha this week.

Charleston is historically the most successful dance style for female contestants, with 14 of these routines finishing top of the leaderboard over the last ten years. I can see that trend continuing, and pick Sarah to finish top.

Bottom

Pete has finished bottom of the leaderboard in three of the last four weeks; with the one exception being the week he performed his Couple’s Choice routine. So, on this occasion I will go with what looks like the obvious choice, and select Pete to come bottom.

Elimination

The two most likely candidates to leave this week are Pete & Montell.

If it’s Montell; she would be the first female contestant to leave when performing the Rumba in a ‘single dance’ week for eleven years (since Sunetra Sarkar in 2013.)

If it’s Pete; incredibly, he would be the first contestant (either male or female) to leave when performing the Waltz in a ‘single dance’ week for sixteen years (since Phil Daniels in 2008 !!)

In last year’s Musicals week there was no elimination, due to Nigel Harman injuring himself in rehearsals. Prior to that, in the eight of the nine previous editions of Musicals week, a contestant who was bottom of the leaderboard ended up being eliminated; so, my pick has to be Pete.

Top

I’m torn between Sarah’s Charleston and Tasha’s Argentine Tango. I’m confident both will be stunning. This week I’m going to play strategically and pick Sarah. This way I can avoid the TASHA rule (Terrific At Scoring Highly Always – which stipulates you cannot pick the same person for top or bottom twice in a row) and select ‘Consistency Queen’ Tasha next week when she dances twice in the semis. Some might say that’s playing too safe, but I don’t want to lose grip on that second place I’m clinging onto in the Leaderboard. So Sarah for me this week.

Bottom

I think Pete will continue to improve but will it be enough to keep him off the bottom? For me yes.  I think his strong frame, and dramatic music (‘Somewhere’ from West Side Story) may be enough to pip Montell’s Rumba, which unfortunately for Montell, I fear could be her Achilles heel.  I can also see them being drawn at the bottom. So perhaps less safe, this week I’ll be picking Montell.

Elimination

With an improved performance from Pete, and his public popularity still strong, I think our hot-stepping Houdini will escape the dance off once again.  In that scenario I think JB could find himself facing Montell. And Montell will lose. So my controversial pick is Montell.

Top

Yeah I still haven’t watched the show – so am going purely on the data on the Leaderboards and the little knowledge I have of the Celebs. For top – I’m going JB – consistently scoring 9s and 10s over recent weeks – so yeah JB.

Bottom

Pete or Chris…. I’ll go Chris and Dianne this week.

Elimination

How is Pete still in it? He’s gotta go surely? I don’t watch it and I’m surprised he’s still in, and everyone who watches is it is even more surprised. Got to go now – Pete.

Top

I am going to go head over heart this week in predicting who’ll be top. Heart is saying JB & Lauren with a Mary Poppins Viennese Waltz – but I did back JB to top at Blackpool with his Quickstep and that backfired.

Viennese Waltzes in Quarter-Final week have a great track record: 6 have been performed, 3 topped the leaderboard, and although one of these (Alesha & Matthew’s 38-scoring routine in 2007) ended up in the dance-off, there has never been a QF elimination for this style. I think JB & Lauren will deliver a superb routine, but head is telling me that very little is likely to beat an Argentine Tango from Tasha or a Charleston from Sarah.

TASHA’s rule means I can’t pick the former – and I don’t think I would if I could. Charleston has the highest average score of any style danced more than once in QF week – 36.78, and 5 of 6 QF Charlestons have scored 38 or higher (the exception was JJ & Amy in 2020). Add to this the currency of a Wicked theme with the movie on current release, and the enduring popularity of this musical, and it seems like a surefire thing for Sarah & Vito.

The one thing to watch out for might be an overly-complex routine – sometimes when Sarah & Vito dance it feels like she is right on the edge of being able to keep up with the choreography, not because she isn’t a brilliant dancer (she is) but because it’s so advanced technically.  Interestingly, Craig has never given a 10 for a QF Argentine Tango, so it will be very interesting to see if Tasha’s breaks this trend.

I choose Sarah.

Bottom

Pretty convinced Pete will be bottom – partly because he has been for the last two weeks, but also because he has been given a Waltz.

This is the first time in fifteen years there has been a QF Waltz – the last one was danced by Chris & Ola in Series 7 and scored 41/50. Other than Samba, no other style danced in a Quarter-Final has a lower average score than the Waltz (31.5). So these factors combined make it pretty certain, but TASHA’s rule applies, and I can’t pick Pete again this week.

I don’t want to pick anyone else to be bottom– but I have to. I believe Chris will do brilliantly with a Quickstep – ballroom is his thing and the training clips I’ve seen look great. Very reluctantly – and only because she’s got a Rumba, which can be tricky – I am going to pick Montell to be bottom. I will be voting for Montell & JoJo though, as I have done every week since the start.

I very reluctantly pick Montell.

Elimination

Pete. Pete. Pete. I’ve seen the pundits saying he’ll survive another week and I think this could be true. However, I think even Pete himself would agree that he needs to go home now.

I pick Pete!

So there we have folks – StrictlyDB has spoken – but what say you? Let us know below or on the socials! It’s getting interesting…