Halloween Week is again nearly upon us so it’s time for some spooky soothsaying fun! We’ve taken a look at the up-to-date ‘danger data‘ (meaning the overall number of different dances in the bottom 2 and eliminated) for the seven dance styles being performed this Saturday.

What might this data reveal about the possible fortunes of the couples dancing on Strictly’s Fright Night special? Which dance styles are more ‘trick’ than ‘treat’?

Note: this data includes performances on Strictly of the seven dance styles appearing in this weekend’s show where there was an elimination up to and including Week 5 of the current series (21st October 2023). Data from non-elimination weeks has not been included (Week 1 of Series 1, 8-21; Week 13 of Series 6 and all Finals; 5 Final dances after which contestants were eliminated due to public vote are not included). Thanks to James Ross for his suggestions here.

Dance by Dance

American Smooth

The data suggests this dance style is more ‘trick’ than ‘treat’; 24.3% of all American Smooths danced end up in the bottom 2, the highest of the dance styles included here. Additionally it has the 3rd highest elimination percentage here, with 12.2% of Smooth performances resulting in an exit.

Previous Halloween shows have seen this style in the bottom 2 (3 times) and eliminated twice so Adam & Luba may have their work cut out for them here.

Cha Cha Cha

The Cha Cha Cha is well known as something of a ‘danger dance’; with the highest elimination rate of 14%, and second highest bottom 2 rate (23.8%) it is the riskiest dance to be performing in this set. So the data confirms this reputation to be well deserved. Indeed the Halloween Cha Cha Cha stats show it to be a potential kiss-of-death dance. The average Cha Cha score in this week is lowish at 26 and it has already made 5 appearances in the bottom 2 on Halloween Week leaderboards, resulting in 3 eliminations (more than any other dance style here).

Speaking of kisses, we are particularly looking forward to the first dance to a KISS track – Nigel & Katya’s routine – on the show. Let’s hope it doesn’t get them shown the door.

Charleston

Halloween always has some shocks and surprises in store and Strictly dances are no exception. The Charleston – a firm fan favourite and a style with some legendary routines – is actually the second most ‘dangerous’ dance to be performing this Saturday. Although less Charlestons (18%) end up in the bottom 2 than some other dances, it is the second highest here in terms of eliminations with 12.3% ending up in this outcome. It seems that if a Charleston lands in the bottom 2 it has a high chance of losing out – both Halloween Charlestons in the bottom 2 went out; however it has also topped the leaderboard twice in this week too. Maybe there’s not a lot worse than a bad Charleston!

This could spell trouble for Angela & Kai (not sure the Murder She Wrote music will help here) and Zara & Graziano (who will be hoping to avoid a third dance-off in 6 weeks).

Paso Doble

Fifth in terms of its appearances in the bottom 2 (18.3% of all Pasos end up here), the Paso is one of the ‘safer’ dances with its lower elimination rate of 7.3% (the 2nd lowest here). Despite being the most danced of these routines at Halloween Week, so far no-one has left the show after dancing a Paso then, and it has only once been in the bottom 2 despite 21 appearances.

Of the dance styles here only the Viennese Waltz is safer in terms of elimination, which is very good news for Angela & Carlos. The Paso has yet to top any Halloween Week leaderboard; could this be the year?

Salsa

In terms of tricks versus treats, the Salsa is a very mixed bag; 22.1% of all Salsas danced end up in the bottom 2 (the third highest here) so it is riskier than most of the others; however in terms of eliminations (10%), it is less risky than the Cha Cha Cha, Charleston, Tango and American Smooth.

Ellie & Vito have the potential to score well with their strong partnership to date and a great track in Strictly alum Sophie Ellis-Bextor’s ‘Murder on the Dancefloor’. However last year, Vito’s first ever Halloween Week routine was also a Salsa. This was performed with Fleur East and scored a decent 32 points however it did not go down too well with the Strictly audience, ending up in a deservedly triumphant dance-off against James & Amy’s (thankfully) bizarre Charleston routine. (What was that we said earlier about there not being much worse than a bad Charleston?)

Tango

The Tango overall is very mid-table in the data but its potential risks should not be underestimated.  20.2% of all Tangos (one fifth) end up in the bottom 2 and 11.7% (4th highest) end up in elimination. Annabel & Johannes and Layton & Nikita will need to dance well but can take reassurance from the fact that the Tango often does very well in Halloween Week. Indeed it has topped the leaderboard in five of the twelve Halloween shows to date (three times with Giovanni performing), and has only appeared once as a bottom 2 dance and never been victim to an elimination at Halloween. Our 2022 research found it then to be the dance style with the highest average Halloween Week score (33).

Nor should we forget that it is a Halloween-themed performance of this oft-cursed dance style that holds the Strictly record for the earliest perfect score ever on the show. Rose & Giovanni’s electrifying 40-scoring Tango to Ed Sheeran’s ‘Shivers’ in 2021 surely remains near the top of Strictly’s all time (and not just Halloween!) highlights. Can this historic score be matched on Saturday night?

Viennese Waltz

As our previous research has shown, ballroom dances are usually safer than Latin routines and Krishnan & Lauren may be helped to progress further in their joyful Strictly journey this week by being blessed with performing what the data shows to be generally the ‘safest’ of these seven dance styles. Both in terms of its percentage of bottom 2 placements (13.6%) as well as its elimination stats (only 5.3% of all Viennese Waltzes end in elimination), it is the least risky.

At Halloween specifically, this dance style has seen both ‘tricks’ and ‘treats’ in past series; it has twice topped the Halloween leaderboard, been in the bottom 2 three times – only one of which resulted in elimination (which is less than the Charleston, Cha Cha Cha or American Smooth). Will Krishnan & Lauren deliver a treat or a trick? Time will tell.

Halloween Highlight

Before we go – and to get you all in the mood for Saturday night – here to enjoy is Rose & Giovanni’s superb ‘twisted Tango’ from Series 19 – the earliest 40 in Strictly history. Will it have to share this accolade with another routine after 2023’s Halloween Week?